Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.018945 0.021507 0.024296 0.027559 0.031274 0.035375 0.040249
2025-03-30 0.014278 0.017629 0.021600 0.026659 0.032944 0.040510 0.050330
2025-04-06 0.011896 0.015544 0.020123 0.026304 0.034454 0.044863 0.059220
2025-04-13 0.009979 0.013653 0.018483 0.025319 0.034780 0.047465 0.065856
2025-04-20 0.009134 0.013009 0.018316 0.026145 0.037453 0.053278 0.077258
2025-04-27 0.008402 0.012404 0.018088 0.026789 0.039847 0.058840 0.088785
2025-05-04 0.007839 0.011958 0.018006 0.027583 0.042472 0.064907 0.101601
2025-05-11 0.007105 0.011165 0.017311 0.027350 0.043467 0.068553 0.110988
2025-05-18 0.006535 0.010561 0.016830 0.027372 0.044816 0.072809 0.121689
2025-05-25 0.005951 0.009871 0.016137 0.026966 0.045399 0.075838 0.130597
2025-06-01 0.005598 0.009520 0.015952 0.027361 0.047319 0.081200 0.143935
2025-06-08 0.005175 0.009010 0.015450 0.027160 0.048178 0.084798 0.154481
2025-06-15 0.004963 0.008852 0.015547 0.028032 0.051044 0.092235 0.172864
2025-06-22 0.004494 0.008197 0.014720 0.027178 0.050718 0.093932 0.180794
2025-06-29 0.004149 0.007735 0.014192 0.026812 0.051240 0.097194 0.191976
2025-07-06 0.003752 0.007139 0.013368 0.025808 0.050439 0.097865 0.198095
2025-07-13 0.003635 0.007062 0.013502 0.026650 0.053299 0.105841 0.219707
2025-07-20 0.003503 0.006943 0.013542 0.027307 0.055839 0.113403 0.241214
2025-07-27 0.003397 0.006866 0.013656 0.028117 0.058760 0.121985 0.265746
2025-08-03 0.003184 0.006556 0.013278 0.027879 0.059463 0.126018 0.280773
2025-08-10 0.003016 0.006322 0.013035 0.027902 0.060716 0.131316 0.299134
2025-08-17 0.002819 0.006010 0.012608 0.027488 0.060977 0.134474 0.312918
2025-08-24 0.002712 0.005884 0.012557 0.027890 0.063083 0.141892 0.337374